Trouble In the Sky!
Solar Activity May Cause Problems for Utilities

Many scientists indicate that we have entered the peak period for solar flares and solar storms. During this period, from January through April 2000, these storms could result in disruptions of satellite communications and less reliable electric power. Other researchers predict potentially serious activity will extend through 2001 and the early years of the new decade.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
U.S. Department of Commerce

What does this mean? Large, expensive utility transformers could be permanently damaged by GICs (Geomagnetic Induced Currents). For utilities, any power interruptions due to solar storms would put pressure on the remaining grid. But utilities and owners of large transformers have more sophisticated advance warning tools than ever before to help them prepare and prevent loss.

What are GICs?

The geomagnetic effects from solar flares occur when the flare accelerates waves of material and radiation energy toward the earth. This solar wind package can impact the earth’s magnetic field and cause a period of fluctuations. These fluctuations can induce the electric currents within conductive material on or near the earth’s surface, including long utility transmission lines. These events are collectively known as geomagnetic disturbances.

Industry sources report that transformers are failing at an above-average rate in areas of the Unites States especially prone to geomagnetic disturbances — the Northeast, particularly the New England states down through the Chesapeake Bay area.

Why are GICs a Concern?

The GIC process is complex and covered in greater detail in the full-text article, but the bottom line for utilities is that GICs can end up on utility transmission lines. When transmission transformers are exposed to a GIC component, they are likely to overheat, even if the low frequency portion is only a small, almost insignificant portion of normal line current.

This can damage utility-owned electrical equipment and cause widespread power blackouts like those that occurred in the 1980s in the Unites States and Canada. In March 1989, for example, 6 million people were left in the dark by a blackout in the Hydro Quebec system. What would happen if a slightly more severe event than the March 1989 storm caused a widespread blackout in the Northeast? U.S. officials estimate the potential economic damage at $3 billion to $6 billion.

Loss Prevention Is Key

The Space Environment Center (SEC) (www.sel.noaa.gov/index.html) continuously monitors solar-geophysical activity. Alerts, warnings, and forecasts concerning the state of the space environment, daily predictions and data summaries are available from the SEC in real time on a variety of communication networks. The SEC also issues 27-day and long-range forecasts, and similar warning programs and databases are updated continuously around the world.